The S&P 500 breakout we’ve been anticipating has finally begun. Last week, we were looking for a move above the recent daily trading range and toward the prior swing high. While the market broke higher on Friday, buyers ran out of momentum before reaching that key resistance level. So, is this simply a pause before the next advance, or are the bulls losing steam?
So, what happened? And more importantly, what comes next?
The Breakout Arrived—but Momentum Faded
A breakout above a well-defined trading range is often a bullish signal, especially after a period of consolidation. It suggests buyers are stepping back into the market and attempting to regain control.
While Friday’s breakout was encouraging, it lacked the follow-through needed to test the previous swing high. That tells us buyers are interested, but they haven’t fully committed just yet.
What’s Holding the Market Back?
Several factors may have contributed to the hesitation.
Federal Reserve testimony before Congress kept investors focused on the outlook for interest rates and inflation. At the same time, renewed geopolitical concerns surrounding the conflict involving Iran created uncertainty that likely encouraged some traders to lock in profits rather than chase prices higher.
Markets often pause when multiple sources of uncertainty compete for investors’ attention.
The Bullish Case Is Still Alive
Despite the temporary hesitation, the technical picture remains constructive.
The breakout above the recent range has already occurred, and the next major upside targets have not changed. As long as buyers continue defending recent support levels, another attempt to challenge the prior swing high remains a realistic possibility.
Markets rarely move in a straight line. It’s common for a breakout to pause before making another push higher.
What We’re Watching Now
The key question is whether the bulls can build on Friday’s breakout now that some of the uncertainty has begun to clear.
If buyers return with conviction, the next move could finally carry the market toward that prior swing high. Failure to do so, however, could lead to another period of consolidation before the next meaningful move develops.
Understanding these key technical levels can help traders stay patient and avoid chasing short-term price swings.
Watch This Week’s Market Minute
Will the bulls finally take control, or is the market setting up for another pause?
In this week’s Market Minute, we break down the key chart levels, explain what Friday’s breakout means, and discuss what needs to happen before the next leg higher can begin.
Watch the latest Market Minute to see the levels we’re watching and what could drive the market’s next move.