With the 2025 holiday season fast approaching, Amazon (AMZN) is once again stepping into the spotlight—this time with both strong seasonal tailwinds and compelling technical momentum behind it.
According to the latest data from Adobe Analytics, U.S. online spending is expected to rise 5.3% year over year to a massive $253.4 billion between November 1 and December 31. And unsurprisingly, Amazon remains positioned to capture a significant share of that surge.
Holiday Spending Forecasts Look Strong
Here’s the breakdown of Adobe’s projections for 2025:
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Total online sales: $253.4 billion (+5.3% YoY)
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Cyber Monday: $14.2 billion
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Black Friday: $11.7 billion
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Cyber Week: $43.7 billion
This is the time of year when Amazon historically shines. With the exception of 2022, AMZN has tended to trend higher into the holiday season, supported by increased consumer activity and strengthened investor sentiment.
Technicals Support the Bull Case
Amazon’s chart is flashing several bullish signals:
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The stock recently bounced off the 200-day moving average, a long-term support zone watched by institutions.
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Momentum indicators—RSI, MACD, and Williams’ %R—are reversing from oversold levels.
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AMZN is beginning to pivot higher, suggesting buyers are stepping back in.
Near term, we’d like to see the stock make a move toward $240, especially as retail spending accelerates.
After that, Amazon could retest its prior high around $238.85, and longer-term momentum may push shares toward the $250 region.
Supporting this outlook, Goldman Sachs recently reiterated its Buy rating, noting Amazon is well-positioned for the holiday season and broader ecommerce demand.
Bottom Line
Fundamental strength + seasonal momentum + technical support = a compelling setup.
As holiday spending heats up, Amazon appears primed for an upside move—one that traders may want to monitor closely as we head deeper into Q4.
Ian Cooper is an experienced trader who combines technical, fundamental, and news-driven analysis to help individual investors grow their portfolios through his Premium Options Strategies.
