Today at FFR Trading, we will be discussing our latest market update with the newest issue of our biweekly Market Movers Newsletter! This month has been extremely active, with a complicated presidential election (that you can read about here), a whirlwind of a market, and still raging global pandemic that makes both the economy and the future of our nation a little uncertain at times. Without further delay, let’s discuss what moved the markets with our market update for the last half of November!
November 16, 2020
- Broader stock indexes are slightly higher on increased vaccine optimism.
- The November Empire State Manufacturing Index, representing a variety of industries in New York, was 6.3 – lower than the 13.5 that was expected.
November 17, 2020
- The stock market is lower today, paring back yesterday’s advance.
- October retail sales increased by 0.3% when a gain of 0.4% was expected. Retail sales excluding vehicles were up 0.2% when a gain of 0.5% was anticipated.
- October Industrial production increased by 1.1%, which compares to the predicted 1.0% gain, and October capacity utilization was 72.8% when 72.2% was estimated.
- The November Housing Market Index surged to 90, far above the expected figure of 85.
November 18, 2020
- Today marked a second day that was sluggish overall for stocks.
- Investors are still digesting the recent sharp rally against the news of increasing COVID infections and potential shutdowns.
- There was very little in the way of economic reports to fuel market movement.
November 19, 2020
- The broader market continues to regroup as investors decide whether to get more aggressive in the markets amid rising pandemic cases and looming shutdowns.
- Jobless claims came in at 742,000 – much higher than the 710,000 analysts had expected.
- On the brighter side of things, existing home sales in October jumped to 6,850 million versus the expected figure of 6.470 million – a 26.6% year over year increase and a 4.3% higher month over month.
November 20, 2020
- The major stock indexes slid as rising new coronavirus cases made for a sluggish end to an indecisive market. This, coupled with questions around central-bank funding for key emergency programs, cast doubt on a swift economic recovery.
November 23, 2020
- Markets moved higher on Monday as investors are focusing on the potential economic recovery prospects for 2021.
- The composite PMI came in higher at 57.9 above the consensus of 55.6.
- Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides an early estimate of current private-sector output by combining information obtained from surveys of around 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies.
- Due to the Thanksgiving Holiday, investors await a wide heap of reports from Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) to Jobless Claims and FOMC minutes to be released this Wednesday.
November 24, 2020
- The broader market advanced to record highs on relief in the resolution of election results, progress in COVID vaccine development, and year-end upward momentum.
- Case-Schiller House Price Index rose 1.3% month over month from the anticipated 0.5%.
- Consumer confidence in October fell to 96.1 from the previous months 100.9 when a rise to 101.4 was expected.
November 25, 2020
- Stocks paused ahead of Thanksgiving Day as investors digested possible seasonal patterns (e.g. the Santa Clause rally that happens at the end of the year) against the possibility that perhaps the market has gotten ahead of economic reality.
- Consumer spending rebounded at 40.6%, slightly lower than expected.
- Jobless claims discouragingly rose to 778,000, higher than the anticipated 730,000.
- New home sales rose to 999,000, higher than 975,000 anticipated.
- Consumer sentiment came in at 76.9, in line with analyst expectations.
- Although personal income showed a month-over-month decrease of -0.7% versus expectations of +0.1%, personal spending increased to 0.5% – which was slightly above the consensus of 0.4%.
November 26, 2020
- Thanksgiving Day (markets closed).
November 27, 2020
- The broader market is currently rising as traders wrap up a strong week amid decreasing political uncertainty and positive vaccine news.
- Retailers were strong as Black Friday brought a 52% decline in brick-and-mortar outfits while simultaneously boosting an online buying surge.
November 30, 2020 – Mid-day
- Stocks are falling sharply as investors are cashing out their gains in a historically strong November.
- Reporting mid-day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 315 points (or 1.1%), up from a 400 point drop earlier in the day. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite traded lower by 0.4%.
- The Chicago PMI came in line within the consensus range at 58.2.
- Pending home sales are down -1.1%, a negative surprise from the expected gain of 2.0%
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